The nation’s daily new cases of Covid-19 rebounded to exceed 300 on Wednesday but maintaining the current Level Two social distancing could help control the viral infections by early next month, an expert said.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said Korea added 320 new confirmed cases as of midnight Tuesday, which raised the total to 18,265. Among 320, only 13 were imported and the rest 307 were local infections.

The daily new cases spiked from 103 on Aug. 14 to 397 on Aug. 23, then came down below 300 on Sunday and Monday. For the past 13 days alone, newly confirmed cases totaled 3,495.

Chun Young-il, director-general of the Statistics Research Institute, speaks on the outlook of Covid-19 during a YouTube show on Tuesday.

Chun Young-il, director-general of the Statistics Research Institute, a think tank under the Statistics Korea, said if Korean people complied well with Level Two social distancing, the nation could see Covid-19 abate in early September, on a YouTube show on Tuesday. Level Two measures ban an indoor gathering of more than 50 people and an outdoor meeting of over 100 people.

Citing a Covid-19 outlook model predicted by five research teams, Chun said the reproduction number (R) stood at 3.5 on Friday, meaning the virus was spreading quickly. Based on this, Korea could have up to 32,000 additional confirmed cases, including 3,300 seriously ill patients within a month, he said.

“The government expanded Level Two social distancing to the entire country (from the greater Seoul area). To confirm the measure’s effect, it takes about 10 to 14 days,” Chun said.

He noted that data showed people’s movements shown in the past one or two weeks were similar to those a year ago, meaning that people’s movements recently went up.

In March and May when the government encouraged a stronger social distancing, the public implemented it immediately, Chun added.

“This time, we should see how much the measure will be effective,” he said.

If Korean people could actively comply with Level Two measures, they will see a clear sign of abatement in Covid-19, he said. Chun proposed taking “Level 2.5” social distancing in the Seoul metro region when necessary.

Although Italy ordered a national lockdown due to massive infections and deaths, the Korean situation was not as bleak as Italy’s, Chun said. “I don’t mean to say the local situation is not serious. I mean if people could follow Level Two measures well, we can contain the spread (of the virus),” he said.

During the YouTube show, Hallym University College of Medicine Professor Choi Young-jun, who is also general affairs director of the Korean Society of Epidemiology, worried that the Seoul metro region could run out medical resources. He called for a stronger social distancing.

Compared to the Covid-19 outbreak in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, the current infections in greater Seoul have affected many seniors which are likely to become seriously ill, Choi noted.

As medical resources are concentrated in the greater Seoul area, the region might be relatively safe, he said. However, if the resources are depleted, the area cannot get help from other regions, he warned. Medical workers’ fatigues have accumulated in many hospitals in Seoul and neighboring cities, he added.

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