UPDATE : Monday, September 7, 2020
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‘Daily confirmed cases could hit 2,800 in 2 weeks if left uncontrolled’
  • By Song Soo-youn
  • Published 2020.08.24 11:39
  • Updated 2020.08.25 11:52
  • comments 0

The health authorities must implement the toughest social distancing to contain the resurge of the Covid-19 in the Seoul metro region, experts warned.

The warning came as an increasing number of infected people unrelated to the cluster infections of a church in northern Seoul had untraceable transmission routes.

According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), the nation added 397 Covid-19 patients on Saturday, and the total of confirmed cases hit 14,200. It was a third consecutive day that Korea’s daily virus cases surpassed 300.

Eom Joong-sik, an infectious disease specialist at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, emphasized that the government should lift the social distancing to the highest Level Three, on a YouTube show on Friday.

According to the “SEIHR-based Covid-19 Local Transmission Model” by National Cancer Center Professor Ki Mo-ran and Researcher Choi Sun-hwa, the reproduction number (R) has shot to 2.83 in August from 0.72 in July. R refers to the number of people one infected person can transmit the virus.

Professor Ki’s research team predicted the number of Covid-19 cases depending on different levels of preventive measures.

If R remains unchanged at 2.83 with the current level of social distancing, the number of daily new cases will jump to 2,886 two weeks later on Sept. 4, Ki predicted. In this scenario, accumulated cases are expected to record 30,894. Four weeks later, on Sept. 18, daily confirmed cases will reach 30,959, and the total cases, 211,268, she warned.

If R slides 30 percent down to 1.198, there will be 1,212 daily new cases with the total standing at 23,646 two weeks later. Four weeks later, daily cases will be 5,014, and the total cases, 63,084, Ki’s model showed.

To contain the number of daily new cases below 10, R should come down to 0.72. According to the model, with R dropping to 0.72, daily new cases will be 235 two weeks later, 139 four weeks later, and fewer than 10 on Nov. 29.

Thus, the authorities should immediately raise the Level Two of social distancing to Level Three, the strongest measure that inhibits a gathering of more than 10 people, another expert said.

Eom Joong-sik, an infectious disease specialist at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, said the daily cases have yet to reach the peak, on a YouTube show on Friday.

“If more cases occur and the government toughens social distancing later, people could suffer greater damage,” he said. “It takes at least one week for the entire nation to practice a stronger social distancing. To see its effect, the nation should maintain stronger social distancing for two weeks.”

Eom proposed lifting the social distancing level to the highest Level Three, monitoring the development, and lowering the level later. This method could prevent massive damage, he emphasized.

He criticized the government for being too positive about the Covid-19 situation.

“Covid-19 is highly contagious, and many infections come with no symptoms. There is no effective antiviral agent and no vaccine. It’s a situation where you can’t be positive,” he said.

Sarang Jeil Church was indeed the center of cluster infections recently, but half of the new daily cases are unrelated to the church, or without clear transmission routes, which is more frightening, Eom said.

The crisis now is more severe than the spike of Covid019 cases related to Sincheonji Church in late February and early March, he assessed.

“The results of extensive community infections are now showing in earnest,” he added.

soo331@docdocdoc.co.kr

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