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‘Worst has passed in new coronavirus outbreak’
  • By Jeong Sae-im
  • Published 2020.02.10 16:08
  • Updated 2020.02.10 16:09
  • comments 0

The new coronavirus outbreak’s worst situation has passed because the growth pace of the newly confirmed cases has slowed down, a report said Monday.

The Global Bigdata Research, a private research institute, released a report on changes in the number of confirmed patients and deaths in China, based on the statistics compiled by the World Health Organization as of Sunday.

According to the Chinese health authorities, the increasing pace of the newly reported cases peaked on Jan. 20 when the number jumped to 219 from the previous day. Since then, the growth rate steadily dropped.

The growth rate hit 38.76 percent on Jan. 28 but came down to a single digit of 9.74 percent on Friday. Beijing said the rate further fell to 5.85 percent on Sunday. All these numbers are based on the premise that China’s official statistics are 100 percent accurate.

Within China, the death toll kept rising but the increasing rate has dropped. Between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, the growth rate of deaths was between 19.7 percent and 50 percent. In February, however, the maximum growth rate fell below 20 percent. On Sunday, the rate declined to 10.09 percent. The slowing trend will drop the rate to below 10 percent after Monday, the report said.

The number of confirmed cases outside China was mostly on a decline, as well. In Japan, the growth pace of the newly confirmed cases hit 16.4 percent on Jan. 7 as many patients were infected on a cruise ship, but the rate has slowed significantly in February.

“Although it is difficult to believe that China’s statistics are 100 percent true, it is likely that they are reflecting the number of newly confirmed cases quite accurately. So, we believe that the new coronavirus outbreak is abating,” an official at the Global Bigdata Research said. “Outside of China, however, it seems that there will be a significant number of untraced infections. So, there is still a concern for a global spread of the virus.”

The Global Bigdata Research collects big data from all available online channels and analyzes public and civilian big data in various areas including politics, social science, and economics.

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